Forecast of Transportation CO2 Emissions in Shanghai under Multiple Scenarios

A reduction in CO2 emissions from transportation is of great significance to achieve the goal “peak carbon and neutrality” China. For 2003–2019, this paper calculates Shanghai constructs an extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, Technology) model for forecasting. The result shows that 2003 2019, total per capita Shanghai’s sector increased, but rate growth decreased. Oil consumption was main source emissions, accounting more than 92%. study analyze driving factors emissions. It population size, passenger turnover, GDP, intensity, energy intensity are positively correlated with Energy structure (the proportion clean energy) has a negative impact, restraining growth. Under multiple scenarios, forecast can reach peak before 2030. However, overgrowth should be avoided. Progress green low-carbon technology particularly important China’s goal. actively build efficient system, continue optimize structure, promote travel residents.